A10 solid 5 and possible two.....

[Dukester]

I really believe 5 teams have identified themselves as contenders for the extremely likely(85%)A10 3 playoff bids.

In no particular order.....

UNH (4-0)- Really pretty tough schedule left, but with Santos and Ball and no losses - they are the team to beat.

UMass(3-1) - interesting game @ Towson on 10/14 - but look to have easist road.

Towson(4-0) - Played their 3 easist games, and passed the first test with a road win at Hofstra, but the road gets only tougher. If the Tigers beat Maine at home next weekend, which I feel is possible, and even likely - they are really solidly in this thing at 5-0 entering their game with UMASS.

Richmond (4-0) - They've played argueably their 4 easist games. No doubt they entered the year as one of the teams to beat, and have done little to change that thought. If they were to pull off the upset next weekend, they would become "the" team to beat. Thought I could see Richmond still finishing 10-1 even with a loss next week.

JMU (3-1) - For JMU I'll open with this - I "could" see UNH, UMASS, and Richmond all finishing with LESS then 3 losses and I don't think 4 A10 teams go this year to the playoffs. Yes, 8-3 may not be good enough. UNH is almost a very needed win. We lose at UNH and we are really behind the "A10 ball" with a 4-2 record. @UNH, @ Richmond, and @ Towson. Our work is cut out for us - and the odds are against us making the playoffs in my opinion. If we make the playoffs with a healthy team, we're in good shape for the playoffs. We have the hardest remaining schedule and do have loss one already under our belts.

Possible 2 .......
UD - 2 losses this early is a killer, but if they can win at NU next week, they still have a shot. Games at Richmond and at JMU make their chances look a bit thin.

Maine - If Maine wins at Towson, they could be 7-2 going into their last two games against UMass and UNH. If Maine losses next week their playoff hopes are over. It's very likely their OOC scheduling(@ BC and @ Youngstown State) has killed the playoff chances of a decent team.

[jski1977]

Dukester, how can you possibly say the odds are against us making the playoffs?!?!?! While I like UR so far this year (side for yesterday's weak performance against NU) I am not sure I would say the odds are against us taking the South! While that in and of itself doesn't assure JMU a playoff spot, if it happens, JMU will be in the playoffs - I'll guarantee it.

I feel like you are trying to set the table for low expectations so when the team fails to meet the expectations of 99% of us, you can say its justified :?

One area where I totally agree with you is in regards to UMass - they definitely have an easier road, having to face the easier of the two "pods" in the Southern division.

Towson is vastly improved, but their true colors will shine once they start playing decent teams.

Delaware showed me a great deal last night, but they are not a playoff team.

I don't know what you've seen in Maine. They are not a playoff team either - and being in the North they are going to have to go through both UMass and UNH - those are two sure losses IMO. I think they'll stumble against another similar middle of the pack team en route to the two playoff contenders up there.

[Duke Dawg]

i'm with dukester. I think the odds are against us because of our schedule.

we have all the top teams on the road except UMass who we don't play. It's going to be tough to lose only 1 of those games. Lose 2 and finish 8-3 and I think we are out because of the Bloomers game.

[Dukester]

Ski - my opinions are not to set the bar low - it's taking a step back and being realistic about the position we are in.

The A10 will not have 4 tems in the playoffs this year.

Richmond and UNH both are 4-0;

UMass is 3-1 and has the easiest schedule.

Richmond or UNH - who have home games with us and one less loss.

Or UMASS who has the easiest schedule?

You think we're favored to make the playoffs over teams rated higher then us, and two with one less loss, and all with favorable schedules over us? :shock:

I have no idea what you're talking about.

I think we have one of the top 4 teams - but the toughest road.

I'll stand by "our work is cut out for" us, and the "odds are against us making the playoffs".

Richmond, UNH, Umass - which of these teams does not have a better shot then us to make he playoffs?

Ski - Actually you agreed with me about Umass - so of UNH (who has one less loss and has a home game versus us(, and Richmond (who has one less loss and a home game against us) - which of those two teams would you favor us over to make the playoffs? :roll:

[jski1977]

I'm confident at 8-3 that this team gets in regardless of the Bloom game. I know what has been stated about D-II games not counting, but I think the committee ocusses much more closely on the number of losses rather than the eligible wins, so long as the number of elgible wins is 7 or more.

I know if you plat all the games out logically that would slot JMU at 3-4 in terms of perceived power in the A-10 (and an 8-3 record), but crazy things always happen.

I'm also not ruling out 4 playoff spots for the A-10 AT ALL this year. Just the way the different leagues have begun to shake out.

[th0m]

I'm also not ruling out 4 playoff spots for the A-10 AT ALL this year. Just the way the different leagues have begun to shake out.

I agree. It's hard to figure out this early how many A-10 teams will make it, but at this point it looks like the SLC and Patriot are one bid leagues. Seeing as how they both got 2 bids last year (as did the A-10), that frees up some room, but it may not be ours to take those spots. The Gateway is similarly tough to figure out.

[jski1977]

I'm not sold on the fact Richmond is better...yet. I may have began leaning that direction in the prior weeks, but I'm backing off that a bit. Yesterday's game proved more to me than any of their previous wins did, IMO. Solid defense, but little offensive firepower. Watch a team like UNH absolutely clean the field with them.

And as I mentioned, I'm also not sold on the fact that 4 teams won't make it out of the A-10. In many other years I;d say no way, this year...well...just look how things are shaking out in other conferences.

I'm not sure I'd set any of the competing teams odds at worse than even at this juncture.

[Dukester]

You may not feel Richmond is better - but they are ranked higher, sagarin has them higher, it's on their field, and they have one less loss.

I'm not sold on Richmond either - but they certainly have the upper hand anyway you want to look at it over JMU at this point.

They are a final 8 team last year that returned 17 starters.

[rufus]

There's no doubt that we have a strong schedule, but I still don't know whether 8-3 is good enough. I mean we're plaing the #1 ranked team on road twice this season. What are the odds of that? Richmond could also be in the top five by the time we meet. It would be heartbreaking have wins over UD and Towson, but still miss the playoffs because of road losses to #1, #2, and #3.

Bourne chose to put us in this position when he put together this schedule at the last minute. Defending national champion on the road and a Division II? Yeah, that sounds like a great idea. He should be held responsible for any outcome.

[Dukes2K3]

I think that if we were to finish 8-3, the quality of our play would also have to factor into the committee's decision. If we lose close ones to the like of UNH and UR and are blowing teams out headed down the stretch, I would think that would have to have some bearing. The goal of the committee should be to identify the 16 best teams, and if that scenario would play out, I think it would be hard to make an argument against us being in that top 16. And, to be honest, I think we're too good to get the doors blown off us by anyone on our schedule. I see this team improving as the year goes on. Yes, we came out of the gates slow, but I think we're starting to settle in a little bit and play the way we're capable of. By the time we get to the toughest part of our schedule, the confidence level should be high.