Blue Ribbon Forecast

[zman3]

1-ODU (Gee what a surprise)
2-NE (That is a surprise)
3-HU
4-VCU
5-GMU
6-UNCW
7-DE
8-DREXEL
9-W&M
10-GA ST
11-JMU
12-TU

All-Conference
G-Barea
G-Stokes
F-Loughton
F-Nana
F-George

POY-Guess ?

Newcomer-Rashad Chase-Ga. St.

Top Backcourts
1-HU
2-NE
3-ODU

Top Frontcourts
1-ODU
2-NE
3-GMU

Let the "Pissing" begin!!

[DrexPhanatic]

I'll kill myself if we actually finish behind Delaware.

[Mr. Jablomi]

No real surprise in any of this. ODU is clearly the heavy favorite, as they should be considering we're clearly the best team, and I also like NU and HU's teams. Not sold on anybody else just yet.
Has any publication been foolish enough to select anyone BUT ODU to win the CAA this year?

[zman3]

Don't think it's happening either!!

[TJ Reaper]

Why would someone do that?

Drexel should not be picked below Delaware....that's crazy. But, it is understandable.

Delaware returns most of everybody from last year, including Nana, A Wash, return Courtney from injury, brings in JUCO Cannon (who people are high on) to fill in at point guard and add some points to the board.......not a bad combo of players. Depth? None....at all.

Drexel lost so many players; but they still have a good returning core to work around. Mason, Crawford as JR's plus Mejia and Sanchez as hopefully the offensive leaders of the team. Put in Tribett or Oveneke at the 4 and there's your team? Young and looking for scoring threats (according to an outsider, i.e., Blue Ribbon).

On paper, Drexel may have more questions than Delaware; but DU also, IMO, has more potential to have a better season. UD has very little depth, but they do have a couple of really good players who could keep them in games pending their offense is clicking.

[masonfan]

I think 2-5 can shift. I have seen Mason as high as 2 but never below 5. NE not to much of surprise. That they are included upon the top, but they are giving them a lot of respect in their first year in a tougher conference.

[SaintDK10]

Anyone who still thinks it's unreasonable to predict NU at second place knows nothing about college basketball and should be posting on basket weaving boards.

That said, I will shoot myself if State finishes behind W&M. :roll:

At least they got the newcomer right. :wink:

[bigblue1975]

No real surprise in any of this. ODU is clearly the heavy favorite, as they should be considering we're clearly the best team, and I also like NU and HU's teams. Not sold on anybody else just yet.
Has any publication been foolish enough to select anyone BUT ODU to win the CAA this year?

"The Reaper Times". :lol:

[TJ Reaper]

I have never said that ODU should not be the preseason favorite. They are CLEARLY the preseason favorite to win the championship.

I have suggested, however, that the way the CAA schedules are laid out, it may be easier for some teams to get to 13 wins than others.......

[zman3]

Saint-Don't know if you're referring to me or Blue Ribbon-But I watch and follow the game as much as anyone on this board. I remember when HU joined CAA and everyone was so sure we could compete for championship-and we fell on our collective faces. I know how good ODU, VCU, Hofstra, UNCW etc are-I'm from Missouri-NE and you guys gotta "show me"!!
PS-Translated NE no better than 5th at best.

[KevinMac]

...that's crazy. But, it is understandable.

http://www.countingcows.de/huh.gif

Crazy and understandable at the same time!

[bigblue1975]

I have never said that ODU should not be the preseason favorite. They are CLEARLY the preseason favorite to win the championship.

I have suggested, however, that the way the CAA schedules are laid out, it may be easier for some teams to get to 13 wins than others.......

You also suggested this on Oct. 20th. :D


Last summer I spent a lot of time talking to people in the west coast and midwest about the CAA (mostly trading schedules, giving them a dose of what to expect). They all, every one of them, respected the CAA as one of the top mid-major leagues. Not THE top, but one of the top. I would say the most common compliment we get as a league is "your league, even though a mid-major, may be the toughest night in and night out during conference play."

They understand how tough it is to win. BUT, that doesn't excuse us from not winning big games in the OOC. We HAVE to do that to get respect late in the year....point blank.

------------------------------------

Here, I will say it. I think that VCU may be the luckiest team in the league next year come conference play. VCU does not have to play a second game vs. Hofstra, Drexel, Northeastern (a team who we would probably split with normally), or Delaware. These are all teams we normally would split with (except Delaware recently). That gives us an advantage.........

ODU does not have to play NU, Delaware, UNCW, or Towson twice. That TU game is a loss of a win. ODU has beaten UNCW something like 6 straight, so that may be a loss of a win. Home game vs. UD would be a win........NU away is a good one to avoid :)



In saying that, I am just looking at the layout of VCU's schedule. VCU averages 1 conference loss at home a year. I think we could go undefeated at home this year in conference (9-0). VCU is one of the top road teams in the league (I want to say the top) according to trends over the last few years. A 5-4 record WITHOUT having to play at Hofstra or at Drexel is not out of the question. That would give us a 14-4 record.........those 5 road wins? Could be @W&M, @JMU, @Towson, @Georgia State, @Delaware........those are teams picked by most in the bottom of the league.

THAT'S A GREAT $&* SCHEME OF SCHEDULING............

Bottom line is this: In a league that is said to be facing its most competitive season yet, a 14-4 record could WIN the regular season title........especially with VCU avoiding THREE games vs. teams who they normally split with.

I think VCU just jumped one in my preseason poll. The more I think about it. Who moves down? HU or NU? I would have to go with HU (just for scheduling purposes). HU loses that extra easier game vs. JMU, W&M.......they will be in dogfights all season. NU, lucky NU, losses that second game vs. UNCW, VCU, and ODU.

I wouldn't be surprised if ODU, NU, and VCU (or a combination of two of them) split the regular-season title. I am calling it here.

[SaintDK10]

Reaper, I couldn't agree with you more here. Some teams have a much harder conference schedule than others. GSU's permanent conference opponents (we play them twice each and every year) are ODU, VCU, UNCW and NU. We also play Hofstra twice this year. That's ten games against what could easily be the top five teams in the CAA this year. Add a game against Mason, and that is hell of a conference schedule. That kind of scheduling is the only reason why I think we won't finish above 8th place in the conference even though our RPI might be higher than some of teams ahead of us in conference rankings.

zman3, I'm referring to anyone who thinks NU doesn't have a good chance of finishing second in the conference. Period. Just because Hofstra finished dead last their first season in the CAA after finishing first in AE the year before, does not necessarily mean NU will not fare well in their first year. I honestly don't know what Hofstra returned from the year before when they first came in, but I sincerely doubt they returned as much as NU is. Again, none of this guarantees NU's second place finish, but I don't think it's unreasonable to predict them being that high.

[zman3]

HU did graduate a number of seniors their last year in AE-BUT did return a number of key contributors (Apodaca, Walker) and had what they felt was super recruiting class. What they found out (stated by Pecora) was quality of CAA athlete superior to what they had been dominating AE with. Will stand with prediction-NE doesn't crack top 5 :!: :!:

[SaintDK10]

Yeah zman, but NU returns virtually everyone, including one of the top PGs in the nation. I say NU finishes 4th or better. I guess we'll just have to see. :D

[TJ Reaper]

BB75, thanks for the reference. I did not feel like retyping something I said earlier. That's exactly what I said I suggested........

Saint, that's one hell of a partner circle.....no "easy" games in there.

Zman, you may be on to something - the athlete that could go 15-3 in the America East may not be the same caliber athlete that can do the same in the CAA.

Last year, the AE had 3 solid ball clubs: Vermont, Boston U, and Northeastern. The remainder of the league were teams that W&M, Towson, JMU could've beaten. That is 14 of 18 games vs. teams with RPI's under 175. Sprinkle in a couple games with Vermont and Boston U and there is your conference schedule.

NU will be going from that to playing teams of UVM, BU's caliber most nights in league. This time, you sprinkle in a five games vs. the CAA-bottom: Two vs. JMU (home/away), two vs. Towson (home/away), and a home game vs. W&M. The remainder of their 18-game schedule is vs. the VCU's, ODU's, Hofstra's, Drexel's, of the league. They may have "easier" games vs. Georgia St, Delaware, but who's to say? UD plays hard in Newark. JMU has played tough in the Northeast.


BUT NU does have the talent on paper to do well in this league. Shawn James won't be going against Harvard athletes when he's on the block. Barea won't be driving past 5-8 point guards to the basket. In other words, this ain't the America East.

Zman, you got me thinking man. But, I still think that NU has top 4 talent on their team. I think it's 1-ODU, 2-Hofstra, 3-VCU, 4-NU, 5-Mason. I still wonder if NU will be able to win on the road. Last year, they lost to Birmingham-Southern of the Big South, Wright State of the Horizon, Harvard of the Ivy, and got beat 3 times by Vermont by 10+ points each..........I just don't know anymore. They did beat UMass on the road, though (before UMass beat UConn).

[bigblue1975]

I wouldn't be surprised if ODU, NU, and VCU (or a combination of two of them) split the regular-season title. I am calling it here.

No problem Reaper. I just wanted everyone to know you had called the above scenario so you can take credit for it
when it happens. :lol:

[TJ Reaper]

Wouldn't be surprised is my way of saying "this is possible."

Quote this: On paper, ODU is a HUGE favorite preseason to win the CAA. But, in reality, the games still have to be played. I went and looked at the schedules and noticed that in conference, VCU may have more "traditionally won" games than ODU. In a close CAA race, don't you think it matters that VCU does not have an extra game with teams they "traditionally split" with (guessing with NU; my guess is we would traditionally split with them)?? Don't you think it matters that ODU loses 3 games vs. teams they have "traditonally beat" in the past few years???

I thought it was a GREAT point. Others I have talked to recently thought so too......i don't see why you are trying to make it seem like a null one :) Oh well :)!!!!!!

[gmutom]

The remainder of their 18-game schedule is vs. the VCU's, ODU's, Hofstra's, Drexel's, of the league.

Surprise, surprise. Once again, Reaper overlooks Mason in one of his biased posts. I seem to find Mason on NU's schedule twice, yet Mr. VCU can't find it within himself to consider us one of the better teams in the conference. Go figure. :roll:

[masonfan]

Anyone that continues to overlook Mason and UNCW on these boards, loses tons of credit, in my eyes. Reaper, did you apply to Mason and not get in? I just don't understand how you can continuely overlook us, and still claim to be a "professional"

[TJ Reaper]

Masonfan, I was going to leave GMUTom's post alone, but here we go:

1st of all, I dont' claim anything. I can't help the way I post up here. I try to pull from stats, facts, to backup my opinion. I don't care about what people "think" I "think" I am. If you ask me, I am a fan just like anyone else.......

2nd of all, the POINT of that statement was that Northeastern is not playing the UMBC's, Stony Brook's of the world for 14-games. Do you think Maine, Hartford, Binghamton got mad because I left them out of that statement? Goodness.......chill out.

3rd of all, I have said and backed up the reason I thought Mason, preseason, is 5th-best. That is STILL TOP 5!!!! I have also said that in the preseason, behind ODU, you can list 2-6 in any order you want. UNCW could beat Hofstra. Mason will beat Northeastern. VCU will be beaten. But I have explained why I picked Mason behind NU-HU-VCU.......DEFENSE is a primary reason. Will they be able to get it together? Depth behind your key starters? At point guard? At shooting guard now? At center?

To be a team returning everybody, you surely do return very little. That is not meant in a "pissing" way, I am saying that to be real. Do a side-by-side depth chart of Mason vs. the teams I picked ahead of you.......then you will have an "OOOOOOOO" moment.

[Mr. Jablomi]

If I'm not mistaken, GMU is coming off a 6th place finish in a 10 team league, right? Why would anyone consider a below average team (again, 6th place in a 10 team league is below average) to all of a sudden be a power team in the CAA? That's just crazy talk. People have been locked up for less than that.
The REAL power teams are ODU (than a huge gap), than HU, VCU, NU, and UNCW. Drexel also seems to find a way in there, somehow.
GMU does not belong in this discussion.

[masonfan]

With starting 2 freshmen we gave the "powerhouse" ODU there worst lost last season and return everyone. you know what, I am not going to get in a pissing contest with you today jablomi, i really am not.

[gmutom]

Let me know when Jablomi and Reaper get done with their little circle jerk, and then I'll be happy to rejoin a serious conversation about college basketball. :roll:

[Sweet Baby G]

The big question: Which team can make a real dent for the league in OOC?

[masonfan]

Mason and ODU. Can't speak on HU and DU, because I don't know who they are playing. Capel called Taylor and got his schedule from last season, so don't expect anything special from them.....wait, they do have rematch with DII VA Union, I hope they are ready this season for them

[bigblue1975]

Wouldn't be surprised is my way of saying "this is possible."

Quote this: On paper, ODU is a HUGE favorite preseason to win the CAA. But, in reality, the games still have to be played. I went and looked at the schedules and noticed that in conference, VCU may have more "traditionally won" games than ODU. In a close CAA race, don't you think it matters that VCU does not have an extra game with teams they "traditionally split" with (guessing with NU; my guess is we would traditionally split with them)?? Don't you think it matters that ODU loses 3 games vs. teams they have "traditonally beat" in the past few years???

I thought it was a GREAT point. Others I have talked to recently thought so too......i don't see why you are trying to make it seem like a null one :) Oh well :)!!!!!!

Anything is possible Reaper. All the zone posters pray for far fetched possibilities everyday. :wink:

[Mr. Jablomi]

My above post, while meant to stir the pot a little, is not that far off. If you return everyone from a mediocre squad, does that mean you are suddenly good? Honest question.
The ODU and VCU kids are used to winning alot of games. Ditto the HU guys, I guess, and the NU guys. The GMU guys? They were a game or two over .500 last year, right? I don't see how anyone could have them, right now, in their top 4.

[SaintDK10]

Anyone that continues to overlook Mason and UNCW on these boards, loses tons of credit, in my eyes. Reaper, did you apply to Mason and not get in? I just don't understand how you can continuely overlook us, and still claim to be a "professional"
Lose credit in your eyes? :lol: :lol: :lol:

[TJ Reaper]

Masonfan, without taking us to Urinetown, answer his question....for real. Why should GMU be considered a threat this season when you guys finished 6th last year and a number of teams ahead of you are returning their key players??

And as for the ODU game....that was ONE GAME....of 18. JMU beat VCU....one game.....of 18. Do you think they are all like "ooo, we beat VCU! We should be taken seriously this season!"

Bottomline, in a normal year without so many returners (golly, EVERYONE from the 1st team All-CAA last year is returning....included no Mason player), Mason would probably be a consensus top 3 pick. But this season, you have ODU returning all but 1. Hofstra returning 5 starters (lost some bench players; Gibson..who was injured most of last year anyway). Northeastern lost 1 (shooting guard). VCU lost 1 (Doles; 2nd teamer).......

Next step is to pull up the depth chart for the Patriots.........you guys don't have championship depth.......

[stuball888]

Let me bring one other point into this thread. NU might have a harder time also because it will be harder to win on the road in the CAA than the AE. There are no or few gimmies in the CAA. The league is deeper and the visiting arenas crowds are much bigger and more vocal than the AE. Even if NU is .500 on the road they still might lose 2 or 3 at home.

[masonfan]

We return everyone as well. Including the three rookies that made the all-rookie team last year. You don't think they are going to be much better? You saw what they were capable of last season, you don't think they will improve?

[TJ Reaper]

Umm, the best of those 3 rookies, John Vaughn, is out with a torn ACL injury..........

And, question: who else PLAYED last year as freshmen? Agudio played for HU. That Kisielius kid from W&M played minutes. Johnson played for ODU a good #. Besides those 3 (excluding Mason), who else were valid candidates?

No one else needed their freshmen like Mason did. Hence, those 3 players got a LOT of PT. I would HOPE they did enough to get All-Rookie.

Seriously, no other freshman play enough minutes to even be considered all-rookie.......that's just the truth.

[gmutom]

Seriously, no other freshman play enough minutes to even be considered all-rookie.......that's just the truth.

Reaper, the truth is also that because they did get a lot of PT, they will be dramatically better. I agree that Vaughn had the best season of the three, but I also thing that Campbell and Thomas have the more upside down the road. To judge this year's team on last year's 6th-place finish is completely unfair and misinformed.

[TJ Reaper]

I am not Jablomi. If you read my post on "why I think Mason will finish 6th" then you will see that I DID NOT AT ALL mention you guys finishing 6th last year.

Bottomline is the 4 teams I picked ahead of you all have enough of their successful core returning. Keyword: Success.

I never knew that being picked 5th was so horrible. In a 12-TEAM league...........

[ODU True Blue]

With starting 2 freshmen we gave the "powerhouse" ODU there worst lost last season and return everyone. you know what, I am not going to get in a pissing contest with you today jablomi, i really am not.

For someone who always talks about ODU and that 4th tier ****e - for the umpteenth time you've used the word "there" instead of "their". Learn English before you talk about how good the academics are at NoVA Community College. The word "there" is place specific. Like put your sutpid comments up your arse because they belong "there". The word "their" is completely different. Different still from the word "they're". I know it is difficult when words sound the same, but any remedial English course can set you straight. Oh Geez, what was I thinking. English is a second language at NoVA Community College.

[SaintDK10]

With starting 2 freshmen we gave the "powerhouse" ODU there worst lost last season and return everyone. you know what, I am not going to get in a pissing contest with you today jablomi, i really am not.

For someone who always talks about ODU and that 4th tier ****e - for the umpteenth time you've used the word "there" instead of "their". Learn English before you talk about how good the academics are at NoVA Community College. The word "there" is place specific. Like put your sutpid comments up your arse because they belong "there". The word "their" is completely different. Different still from the word "they're". I know it is difficult when words sound the same, but any remedial English course can set you straight. Oh Geez, what was I thinking. English is a second language at NoVA Community College.
:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

I mean seriously...

:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

[DarthDave]

I'll kill myself if we actually finish behind Delaware.

When is the funeral?

[VCURamsFan]

If I'm not mistaken, GMU is coming off a 6th place finish in a 10 team league, right? Why would anyone consider a below average team (again, 6th place in a 10 team league is below average) to all of a sudden be a power team in the CAA? That's just crazy talk. People have been locked up for less than that.
The REAL power teams are ODU (than a huge gap), than HU, VCU, NU, and UNCW. Drexel also seems to find a way in there, somehow.
GMU does not belong in this discussion.

How can you consider the gap between ODU and VCU HUGE? You're ridiculous.

[NU Hoop Fan]

A couple points of clarification about NU's record last year.

1. Marcus Barnes (NU's second leading scorers) didn't play against Harvard as he was late for the team bus.

2. Shawn James didn't play against Birmingham Southern as the clearinghouse asked a couple of questions before tip off and he wasn't cleared to play until the Harvard game.

3. Shawn James blocked 5 shots and had 5 rebounds against some team called THE UNIVERSITY OF CONNECTICUT at Storrs after which Jim Calhoun jokingly said to one of his assistants (Andre LaFleur - who played for him at NU) "You didn't recruit the kid, and he's going to break most of Reggie Lewis' records at Northeastern - it's on your head." - LaFleur and Lewis were best friends.

UNCLE, UNCLE, UNCLE... Yes the CAA is a tougher place to play on the road. The CAA is a tougher conference than the America East.

Can we stop beating the dead horse?

Can the mutual admiration society meeting stop for about 10 minutes??

That being said.. I just booked my tickets for the Georgia State/UNCW weekend trip in January. Saint and the GSU posters and the UNCW guys - looking forward to meeting you folks this season.

[hemloche]

A couple points of clarification about NU's record last year.

1. Marcus Barnes (NU's second leading scorers) didn't play against Harvard as he was late for the team bus.

2. Shawn James didn't play against Birmingham Southern as the clearinghouse asked a couple of questions before tip off and he wasn't cleared to play until the Harvard game.

3. Shawn James blocked 5 shots and had 5 rebounds against some team called THE UNIVERSITY OF CONNECTICUT at Storrs after which Jim Calhoun jokingly said to one of his assistants (Andre LaFleur - who played for him at NU) "You didn't recruit the kid, and he's going to break most of Reggie Lewis' records at Northeastern - it's on your head." - LaFleur and Lewis were best friends.

UNCLE, UNCLE, UNCLE... Yes the CAA is a tougher place to play on the road. The CAA is a tougher conference than the America East.

Can we stop beating the dead horse?

Can the mutual admiration society meeting stop for about 10 minutes??

That being said.. I just booked my tickets for the Georgia State/UNCW weekend trip in January. Saint and the GSU posters and the UNCW guys - looking forward to meeting you folks this season.

well since ODU has already won every game for the next 10 years, all of these questions are moot since we are all playing for second place. Yawn just another pissing match between Jablowme and MF.

[masonfan]

Can you say bitch? I mean stop already.

[gmulion]

Mason's biggest problem last year was lack of depth in the front court. We had Jai Lewis and Will Thomas start and the only other low post player we had coming off of the bench was Jesus Urbina who was playing on a bum knee. We had Campbell, who was recruited to be a combo gaurd, playing the 4. This year we have 2 new post players coming for depth in the front court. We will have plenty of depth this year.

[hemloche]

Can you say bitch? I mean stop already.

Yes I can and I can also say follow your own advice!

[T-McGriddle]

List Mason's two-deep and a quick analysis of each player. It'll be a lot easier to analyze than the "trust me we have depth" posts.

[gmulion]

Mason Starters:
PG - Skinn Sr - fast playmaker, 2nd year as a starter All-CAA 3rd team
SG - Butler RS Sr - 3 point shooter, 4th year as a starter All-CAA 2nd team
SF - Norwood Jr - passer and athlete, 2nd year as a starter
PF - Thomas So - rebounder, 2nd year as a starter All-CAA rookie team
C - Lewis Sr - low post scorer, 3rd year as a starter All-CAA 2nd team

Bench
PG - Carter So - true pass first PG
SG - Burns Jr - former walk-on, 3 point shooter
SF - Campbell So - slasher does everything All-CAA rookie team
PF - Hernandez Fr - low post scorer tough defender
C - Fleming Fr - rebounder, local kid who adds size

PF - Urbina Jr - currently injured will help out with rebounding and depth in the post when healthy
SF - Konate Jr - has yet to score in 2 seasons
SG - Vaugh So - injured knee will red-shirt this year All-CAA rookie team

[T-McGriddle]

Aside from Campbell, the two-deep looks pretty inexperienced. They might develop as formidable contributors once you hit CAA play, but I would hesitate to call any of them aside from Campbell a contributor off the bench.

[gmulion]

Both Carter and Burns received a good amount of playing time last year, so I wouldn't call them in experienced. Also, as I said in my post above the main problem last year was there was no one on the bench to help out inside. We recruited 2 players to do that. Now the defense won't have to collapse down as much to help protect the interior defenders. We have 2 new players who at least give us 10 more fouls who can help out. This will allow the perimeter players to gamble a little more and will allow Coach L to use the scramble defense more effectively.

[Polito1]

Saint, I guess you would be talking about me too, cuz I'm with Zman - I guess that means we don't know anything about bball, lol :wink:

oh wait, the season hasn't even started yet, so I guess we'll just have to wait and see! :P

[TJ Reaper]

GMULion, the depth that Mason has right now, according to you, is not as deep or as proven as the depth of ODU, VCU, Hofstra. One could argue why I picked NU above Mason, but even NU has some solid depth.

For example, THIS is depth (NOT listing all players):

ODU:
PG - Williamson & Johnson......both battle each other to start games as both are starter-worthy
SG - Hunter.......Lidonde is probably one of their better perimeter scorers
Wing - Henderson.......their freshman Adams is the strongest on the team; he could earn this spot
PF - Dahi & Vasylius.....two players who are both starter-worthy......the best PF combo in the league hands down
C - Loughton.....Harris is learning, but at 7-4 and growing, who wouldn't love him on their roster?

IMO, ODU has 8 players who are starter-worthy. That means 3 will be coming from the bench........

VCU:
PG - Maynor........that's right. I think a freshman may just earn this spot over a senior Harper--kid is good
SG - Walker.........look for Shuler to really give VCU depth here; looked good this summer
Wing - Pellot-Rosa.....defensive-specialist plus a little scoring; backed up by George, starter at PF and Gwynn, Dixon, Anderson
PF - George.........backed up by JR Dixon, So Anderson.....both are offensively inconsistent, but defensively solid (esp. in zones, etc.)
C - Roland........2nd yr; will battle to keep this spot with Davis, transfer from Seton Hall

VCU's depth will be proven on the court vs. in the preseason; but their depth has game experience as they return so many letterwinners.

Hofstra:
PG - Stokes........backed up; pushed; by a young Greg Johnson, who should allow Stokes to play more of a role off the ball
SG - Rivera.........lights out shooter; backed up by soph. Lebron and also Washington, Stokes
Wing - Agudio......super sophomore; doesn't need to be backed up! HU has frosh Sestokas and Davis-Sabb to fill in during water breaks
PF - Kieza........CAA's most underrated forward; Urbitas, Davis-Sabb, maybe Harris should back him up
C - Uter......backed up by big boy freshman Gadley if ready

Hofstra has young depth, true, but a LOT of it..........

Northeastern:
PG - Barea.........backed up by Martinez, who has been in the NU program 4 years (RS JR)
SG - A.Davis......should be okay here if up to form, healthy; freshmen Brickley, Cyprian are his backups
Wing - Kelly.......good athlete; not very productive offensively, but is good in his role; I hope Janon Cole plays here some (or starts)
PF - B.Davis.......Bennett is a great complement to James; always in the game, always productive; backed up by Cole
C - James..........super sophomore; backed up by frosh Egemonye, 22, who is supposed to be game ready.....

Don't know about the 3 guard thing when you have players like Egemonye, Cole in your frontcourt, but we will see! Lots of newbies not mentioned.


That's my top 4. Here's what I think of Mason, my #5 preseason:

Mason:
PG - Skinn.........wonderful player to watch; let's see if he's ready to defend; backed up by a young Carter.
SG - Butler.........excellent shooting guard with tons of experience; is Burns ready to really back up Lamar Butler??? He may play 32 mpg again this yr....
Wing - Norwood & Campbell - both are very good players and athletes; both are combos and can play multiple positions for Mason.
PF - Thomas........solid defense, good presense for GMU on the baseline; freshman Hernandez behind him
C - Lewis............scoring threat from down low; excellent player; Fleming should help behind him

The difference with Mason is the depth. Urbina is injured (but will return). Vaughn is injured. Mason will be depending on Fleming/Hernandez to add depth to the frontcourt immediately. If they aren't ready, then Mason ends up with 1 low-post player on the bench in Urbina and will have to pull Campbell back to the frontcourt for some minutes. The backcourt, starting, is GREAT.....just as good as most. But defending the perimeter has been an issue. Mason was 9th last season in 3PT % defense (ahead of W&M). To be a top team especially in a year where teams have shooters, you have to guard the trey. Mason's depth behind Skinn and Butler scares me.

Norwood will be able to fill in at the PG if Carter can't defend and Skinn needs a break. Norwood and Campbell can fill in at the SG if Butler needs a break. But, they both still have to play the wing! It's spreading these few players out too much. Not only those two, but even Urbina inside (that is, depending on Fleming/Hernandez being ready to contribute). Mason is one of the toughest programs to get accustomed to quickly. It takes time.

To have to depend on Burns as Butler's backup......hey, Burns is a good player, but replacing Butler in a game? That's like taking out steak and putting in vienna sausages.


Let's not leave out my 6th favorite team this season, UNCW:

UNCW:
PG - Goldsberry.........Soyebo is going to be a CHAMP; he will move JG off the ball a little this year, which could be killer
SG - Carter................tons of young talent behind him; Gardner, Miller, Fountain.........
Wing - Wyrick.............the CAA's most underrated defender; backed up by offensive threat Taylor Lay; two seniors on their wing
PF - Laue & Henley......I think you have Laue starting (SR), but Henley, once the rust is off, will take over that spot eventually.....
C - Kuljanin................could be a super sophomore; Vlad is ready to breakout; backedup by Grkovic, who I just don't know about........

I picked Mason ahead of UNCW because UNCW has more questions at more positions than Mason does. Potential wise, UNCW could make the CAA race interesting if the freshmen at the 2 are ready to contribute; if Soyebo REALLY IS the beast we are hearing; if Kuljanin is ready to take over for Coombs (if he's not, then Houston...we have a problem); if Henley will play like Wake Forest thought he could when they signed him; if Lay will be more consistent and give them points from the wing; so many "ifs".....the only players UNCW can count on right now are Goldsberry, Carter on offense; Wyrick, Laue on defense. That is not enough preseason.

Mason can count on Skinn, Lewis, Butler, even Campbell and Norwood's defense right now, preseason.


Maybe that helped clear up the reasoning behind my picks. I could go into deeper detail and unleash the depth charts, analyses I did, but I think that would be too much :)

[hustle]

Drexel picked 7th or lower and no analysis Reaper I am dissapointed.

[TJ Reaper]

I didn't have time to do Drexel! Drexel is young and has more questions than UNCW, which is why I picked them 7th. Quickly,

PG - Mason & frosh Hawthorne at the point is very good; you probably won't even need Hawthorne, who is a very talented freshman
SG - Mejia & frosh Rodgers at shooting guard; big guards who both can score like it's nothing; Mejia should play on the wing, IMO
Wing - Sanchez & Hampton on the wing with Mejia, Rodgers both able to back them up. Solid 2-3 for Drexel......not the problem.
PF - Tribbett; frosh - if he's not ready, look for Sanchez to move over with Mejia on the wing and Rodgers/Mason in the back
****Oveneke could also play here, but I don't know what I saw in him last year.......don't know if he's ready; could be more ready than Tribbett
C - Crawford - defensively a stopper, but offensively not great. Drexel needs him to be a double-double player next year often......

I like Drexel because I like Bruser. No way he will allow his team to finish so low. BUT, on paper, preseason, Drexel has questions. Mejia averaged 10 ppg in something like 15 mpg last year.......I think he will be a BEAST, but will he be able to carry the team offensively? It HAS to be him. Sanchez has disappointed me since his frosh year; always expected him to be a LOT more developed by now. Is he ready to have a killer season? He needs to give you more than 6 & 3 each night in 25 mpg.........Power forward? A problem. Last year, Crawford and Brooks were able to cover both positions depending on which side of the court they were on. This year, with Crawford on the low block on both ends (UNLESS TILLMAN/ELEGAR SURPRISE), you have a young PF spot. Tribbett is talented, but is he ready? Oveneke has potential, but I don't know......he had his moments. Stevenson.......had his moments. The inside is such a questionmark for a team with arguably the best post defender in the league.

Oh, PLUS Mason has to find his shot!!!! We've been waiting for it to be found. He takes a lot of risks driving to the basket, but rarely makes that extra pass as efficient as he could. Is he improved? Don't get me wrong, he is definitely one of the better guards in the league, but he has to contribute so much for DU to have a DU-esque season..........

Guys, it could be as ugly as the first part of last year (with those injuries inside......) if the post players aren't ready. But Bru always figures it out, even if he has to go with a 4-guard lineup (with the 4 being for a slasher like Kennell). DU won't be an easy out this season.

Going into this season, who can you guys definitely depend on? (This is the question that I asked myself while bottomlining my preseason picks)

Mason's defense. He also is going to play his heart out, but that may or may not turn into points or assists.
Crawford's defense. Offense is so dependent.
Mejia's offense. Because you have to.
Sanchez's hussle. May not always give you greatness, but he'll always give you a good effort.

That's my take on Drexel.

[GS]

Mason wasn't a top 2 team last year b/c we lost Kevin Mickens and Trent Wurtz before the season started. Plain and simple. The rebounding dept has reloaded in a big way for this year. Finishing 6th having played 3 all conf rookies says alot about the young and talented team from last year. btw, thats the same team that waxed ODU in fairfax, and took mich st to the wire. unlike odu could do when they had to face mich st. with a young but expierenced roster and improved rebounding, they are ranked exactly right.

odu and vcu kids are used to winning games, but that's a recent learned behaviour. Mason kids are more accustomed to playing on Monday night for the right to dance. History indicates that Mason and the core players of this years team have more know how playing in Richmond than all teams in the CAA, ODU and VCU included, but only a tad ahead of UNCW, only b/c wainwright is gone.

[VRam2]

Hmmm, VCU's played on Monday night 3 of the last 4 years.

[T-McGriddle]

GS stop being such a typical GMU fan. Using your win against ODU and a "close loss" against Michigan St. doesn't mean that GMU is bringing back a stellar squad. By your logic, VCU and Hofstra both beat ODU last season, both beat GMU last season, and both return a significant number of letter-winners, so they must be favored over GMU since both finished ahead of GMU in the regular season and both advanced deeper in the CAA tourney. So, using GMU logic, GMU can't be ranked any better than 4th. Once you factor in Northeaster and the signifcant talent that they return, you can see why many people have GMU ranked 5th.

[TJ Reaper]

Let me take this one:

1st of all, "finishing 6th was good for this young team"???? Seriously? Where else would you have finished? DELAWARE, JMU, TOWSON, W&M FINISHED BELOW YOU......all the good teams finished ahead of you.

2nd of all, Mason has a history of winning that dates back a few years. ODU and VCU have a history of winning that dates back, oh, THEIR ENTIRE PROGRAMS! Don't ever compare Mason basketball as having a better winning tradition than ODU or VCU. That's so inaccurate. Not being pissy or mean, just blunt and real.

3rd of all, surely Mason lost Mickens and Wurtz. Like I said preseason last year, it was going to be a huge lost for Mason (which is why I picked GMU low). This year, you add two good talents inside in Hernandez and Fleming, but man, they are FRESHMEN playing for a coach that has the toughest system to get use to in the league. I just don't know if I would say "problem solved" so quickly.

Even WITH Wurtz and Mickens, Mason still would not, IMO, have been a top 2 program. Why? DEFENSE. Your perimeter guys sucked at it. Too many shots by opponents were hit. Viewing tapes, it was easy for coaches to figure out how to beat you. That's the plain and simple...........

[TJ Reaper]

I just did this CRAZY analysis where I picked wins/losses based on history, history W-L in that period ("not great in the OOC, but great in February"), team strengths, possible intangibles, etc......

What I came up with is really, really CRAZY........

Let's just say that there is a GOOD chance that ODU, Hofstra, and VCU could share the regular-season title or be within a game of each other. Why (and I have alluded to this before)? HU and VCU have "easier" conference schedules, especially down the stretch. If VCU is as good as advertised, they could put together an 11-game winning streak going into the CAA tournament (pending a win at NU). I have NU and Mason finishing with 12 wins each. DREXEL surprisingly has a good chance with their schedule to win 11+ in conference.......

Again, it's crazy, I know. BUT, if you could see the reasons why I picked each game, you would be a believer. PM me if you want to know some reasoning or want the spreadsheet........

Once again, how about this????

1 - ODU (14-4)
1 - VCU (14-4)
1 - HU (14-4)
4 - NU (12-6)
4 - GMU (12-6)
6 - DU (11-7)
6 - UNCW (11-7)

And, with those OOC schedules, I have them ALL winning 18+ games (DU, UNCW 18; NU 20/21; GMU 21/22; VCU 22; HU/ODU 23)

Crazy, I know....but trust me....TRUST ME.....we are getting 2 into the NCAA's this year......

[TJ Reaper]

Oh, and Towson and W&M fans aren't going to like me at ALL.......you both don't get any breaks in the scheduling. I have both teams starting 5-0 for the season, but once conference play starts, it's a lot of road games with very few stretches of oxygen......."VCU" today, "ODU" tomorrow, "Drexel" the next day, "NU" the next.......crazy.

I do have JMU in a 3-way tie with Georgia State and Delaware.......I think JMU will prove themselves as a good game this year.

[DarthDave]

Would anyone with Blue Ribbon mind posting Delaware's write up on our boards. Thanks!

[zman3]

Northeastern picked 6th in CAA Coaches poll-How could anyone in WRIGHT mind pick them that low ? :wink:

[TJ Reaper]

No CAA respect yet. They have to earn it.

[GS]

TOTAL CAA TOURNEY APPEARANCES

GMU 7


ODU 6






VCU 4

[Mr. Jablomi]

Total NCAA tourney appearances:
ODU 8
VCU 6-7
GMU 3
NIT appearances:
ODU 9
VCU 4-5
GMU 2


Total post season appearances:
ODU 17
VCU 10-12
GMU 5 :oops: :shock:

[gmutom]

NIT appearances:
ODU 9
VCU 4-5
GMU 2

Make that 3 NIT appearances, Sparky. (We beat Lamar in the first round in 1987.) It still only brings our postseason appearances to an underwhelming six times, but it does demonstrate once again how you have a history of playing loosely with the facts for the sole intent of building up your school. Shame on you! :oops:

[bigblue1975]

Sparky? :lol:

[Mr. Jablomi]

Is there really much difference? Either way, it's pathetic. ODU, VCU and GMU have been D1 for roughly the same amount of time. GMU's program, however, does not come close to measuring up to the other two. Not close.

[gmutom]

Is there really much difference? Either way, it's pathetic. ODU, VCU and GMU have been D1 for roughly the same amount of time. GMU's program, however, does not come close to measuring up to the other two. Not close.

Apology accepted. :wink:

[TJ Reaper]

GS, let's not even go there. Are you serious?

Why has VCU won only 1 less CAA championship than Mason has, but we've been in the league nearly half the time you've been in it? Things that make you go hmmm.........

I would HOPE that one of the original CAA teams has more finals apperances than VCU and ODU respectively.........but to only have 1 more than ODU and 3 more than VCU is "pathetic" as Jablomi says.

I am not downing GMU, I am just saying.....why try and speak like Mason is one of the best basketball programs in CAA history only to get facts thrown at you? Don't put yourself in that position.

:)

[Mr. Jablomi]

:wink: :lol:

[NU Hoop Fan]

Total NCAA Tournament Appearances -

Northeastern (7)

[masonfan]

Wow, didn't take Mr J long to start a pissing contest. Not to drag this out, but something to make you go hmmmmm; since ODU and VCU has joined the league Mason has really done well....I wonder why? Maybe less competition?

[GS]

in this conference, Mason and UNCW hold the most conference championship tourney appearances. plain and simple.

[ramathon74]

NCAA Tournament Appearances: 7 (1980, 1981, 1983, 1984, 1985, 1996, 2004)
NCAA Record: 4-7
NIT Appearances: 4 (1978, 1988, 1993, 2005)
NIT Record: 2-4

How many other CAA teams have 4, let alone more, wins in the Division I NCAAs?

The sad thing is, I read that for the new Big East basketball conference, 15 of the 16 team have been to the NCAA Final 4! South Florida is the odd team out.

[jmu98]

JMU has just as many CAA Championship Tourney Appearances as GMU, dummy.

[gmutom]

NCAA Tournament Appearances: 7 (1980, 1981, 1983, 1984, 1985, 1996, 2004)
NCAA Record: 4-7
NIT Appearances: 4 (1978, 1988, 1993, 2005)
NIT Record: 2-4

Ramathon, that is impressive and certainly better than Mason's overall record, but I can't help but notice that six of your 11 appearances were more than 20 years ago and only two fall in the last decade. Judging from the drought you went through from 1997 to 2004 (one NIT appearance), it's obvious that Jeff Capel's arrival has returned your program to the prominence it once enjoyed consistently in the 80s.

Mason turned D-1 in 1979, made our first NIT appearance in 1986, and didn't qualify for the NCAA tournament until 1989. Based on that timeline, you can see that VCU, ODU and many other teams got a lot quicker jump on us in terms of developing their programs. And that, in a nutshell, is why we like to focus on the Coach L era when we finally had a legitmate chance to make the postseason almost every year.

[RamKnowledge]

I've got a great idea............

Let's just say that ALL OF YOU have the best basketball program in the CAA, OK? Will that make you happy!!??

Now shut the F up and get on with your lives "losers"!! In the grand scheme of things, nobody really gives a rats about VCU, ODU, and GMU basketball.....................wake up for God sakes.

[gmutom]

In the grand scheme of things, nobody really gives a rats about VCU, ODU, and GMU basketball.....................wake up for God sakes.

RK, if you don't like CAA hoops or VCU, why do you bother posting here? In fact, here's a good chatroom that might help you deal with your anger management issues. :wink:

Help for Ram Knowledge (http://forums.chathouse.com/great_hall/greathall/index.phtml?message_id=258805)

[bigblue1975]

It's nice to see things have calmed down. :lol:

[GS]

jmu??? who's that? aren't they in the meac?

[dukaholic]

jmu??? who's that? aren't they in the meac?

Nope. Too many white people.

[TJ Reaper]

Since 1983,

Team--Tournament Finals Apperances--W/L?


RICHMOND 8 5-3
UNCW 8 3-5
JMU 7 2-5
GMU 7 3-4
ODU 6 4-2
VCU 4 2-2
NAVY 4 3-1
ECU 1 1-0
W&M 1 0-1
DREXEL 1 0-1

So, GS, how can you say that "UNCW and GMU have the most tournament appearances, plain and simple" when that's not backed up by the facts?

UNCW and Richmond both have 8 tournament final appearances. Mason and JMU both have 7.

ODU already has 6 appearances, but has only been in the league for 14 seasons. That means that ODU only has 1 less appearance than GMU, who has played 9 more years in league than ODU.

Heck, VCU has only been in this conference for 10 seasons and has 4. That means that:

VCU has been in the CAA championship game 40% of the time since joining the conference.
ODU has been in the CAA championship game 43% of the time since joining the conference.

GMU has been in the CAA championship game 35% of the time since joining the conference.

All are good, but VCU and ODU both have better history of being conference finals than GMU. HELL, if you want to really look at it and be FAIR and inclusive,

Add 3 more tournament finals for ODU (3 Sun Belt championship finals, 1-2 record, since 1982)
Add 3 more tournament finals for VCU (2 Sun Belt (1-1), 1 Metro (0-1), since 1982)

THAT would put ODU at #1 as the "CAA team with the most tournament finals appearance since 1982" and VCU tied with Mason with 7.

And if you say "but, but, but we are talking CAA!" That's fair, but those tournament finals were vs. Louisville, UAB, teams of that caliber.......

[fmrick]

Wow, this thread is something.

Just for our new friends at GSU and NE. I have followed the CAA since the 80's, first because some of the local teams played there, and later because VCU joined. Here is what I have observed over the past years. When a new team comes in how well they do depends on four things:

1. How good THEY were before they came to the conference.
2. How good the CONFERENCE they came from was.
3. Are they stepping up or down in conference?
4. How much notice did they have that they were moving?

We saw it best when VCU joined. VCU came from the Metro. A top 10 conference with powerhouse teams. VCU was not even mildly successful in the Metro, other than an upset win here and there. Here are the numbers for VCU the two year prior to coming to the CAA, and the first year after they arrived:

93-94 14-13 RPI 58 5th in Metro
94-95 14-14 PRI 200 Last (7th) in Metro
95-96 24-8 RPI 66 First in CAA

For the years before coming to the CAA the Rams were able to recruit Metro type players. The first year in the CAA they lost only two games. Both were big upsets, and both were by one point. In some games it was almost like we were playing warm-up games. I saw them all but one, and it was a fun season to be a Ram Fan. VCU had no official warning that they were going to be kicked out of the Metro. So right up to the last recruiting cycle we were going after Metro type players.

Now consider how the last four teams to come into the CAA did in their first seasons. They finished 4th, 5th, 7th, and 10th. All were considered to be stepping up to a better more powerful conference. If I remember correctly, they had some warning of the move.

There are other examples in other conferences. The general trend is that if you are moving up you take a hit for a year or two. If you are moving down you are able to maintain or improve. We have seen it in lots of teams. American moved down, Virginia Tech moved up (slightly).

So that is what I'm use as my frame of reference for the next year. Considering the four things I listed, I can see both new teams struggling for a year or two. It is a move up, your players will have to adjust to a more athletic style of play, there will be different standards of officiating, etc.

Can you compete? Well, in your advantage is the fact that both are quality teams. Additionally, you both had the advantage of time in your recruiting over the past year. So you might be able to do OK.

But don't take offense when people don't give you the props you think you deserve. Most of us are using our own past experience to make the judgments that we do. If you disagree, prove it to us on the floor. Now that would be something! One of the new teams challenging for the title. Look out ODU!

Good luck. This is going to be a fun season!

[TJ Reaper]

Good analysis, FMRick, but I think that Northeastern is not Hofstra, Delaware, Drexel, or Towson of 2002. Looking at what those 4 lost before coming to the CAA, I was amazed that CAA Coaches picked two of them to finish in the top 5 preseason. Northeastern returns everybody but their starting SG. I am not saying that I think it won't be hard, but I hope that NU can be the team that people are picking them to be.

This may also hurt Barea's chance to get drafted if NU SUCKS in the CAA.

Another move from "high" to "low" is Charlotte. UNCC finished high in the old C-USA and now is moving to a recooping A-10. Most are picking them at #1 or #2 preseason. Look at St. Louis, a team that has seen its struggles in the C-USA. Coming into the A-10 from a higher conference, they probably are looking forward to finishing somewhere in the middle or higher.

Like Rick said, it's all about where you come from, true, but it NEVER hurts to actually return so many players from a great season.

Hypothetical question: ODU accepts Big East invitation effective this season. ODU still returns all but 1 from a 28 win season. Where do you think ODU would be picked to finish in the Big East of 2006? Probably somewhere in the middle.

Not saying America East is to CAA as CAA is to the Big East, but that is basically what the coaches are saying :)

No doubt about it, Northeastern would've been a unanimous favorite to win the America East title this year. Georgia State would've been a top pick to win the Atlantic Sun this season. We have two solid basketball programs competiting with us this season.....it's going to be a tough adjustment for them, but I think NU may win its share of games.

[VRam2]

Reaper, why did you have to mention ODU? :lol: :lol:

You know they're gonna come on here now and say how they'd win the BE.

[T-McGriddle]

I don't think you'd find any ODU fan say that we would win the Big East. I think we'd finish about 6-7th in the Big East, but we'd show vast improvements from year to year as Blaine could finally land nearly any recruit he talked to. I'd say if BT stayed, we'd be in the top four of the BE within four years.

[VRam2]

:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

[gmutom]

I'd say if BT stayed, we'd be in the top four of the BE within four years.

I pretty mich dismiss 98-percent of everything TM says as hyperbole, but I think you could make this argument about ODU and the upper half of the CAA. We don't miss out on the elite recruits because they don't like our respective schools, we miss out on them because they want to play in a bigger conference. It honestly didn't bother me that much when Mason lost Terrance Vinson to Virginia Tech last year, because I more than understand why he would want to play in the ACC over the CAA.

It might take more than the four years that TM suggested, but I agree with his premise. A number of CAA teams could make waves in the Big East or ACC in several years if they were given the opportunity to recruit from the same talent pool. Right now, we're fishing in the kiddie pool compared to the pool they get to tap.

[GS]

I didnt know Richmond came back to the CAA?? when did that happen? I left JMU out b/c they dreadful. but u are correct UNCW, JMU and MASON have the most CAA final tourney apperances. quit draining me.

[ODU True Blue]

Since 1983,

Team--Tournament Finals Apperances--W/L?


RICHMOND 8 5-3
UNCW 8 3-5
JMU 7 2-5
GMU 7 3-4
ODU 6 4-2
VCU 4 2-2
NAVY 4 3-1
ECU 1 1-0
W&M 1 0-1
DREXEL 1 0-1



Why not put the stat up of first round losses? With the exception of W&M, I'd bet GMU has the most of all other schools. I know since Granda Evans left they have 4 in the past 5 years. In that time span only W&M has more one and done appearances.

But the good side is you guys get some of your money back selling your ticket books.

[VRam2]

I guess there is a bright side to everything OTB.

[TJ Reaper]

I didnt know Richmond came back to the CAA?? when did that happen? I left JMU out b/c they dreadful. but u are correct UNCW, JMU and MASON have the most CAA final tourney apperances. quit draining me.

You mean quit proving you wrong??? You should watch what you say then.

:)

[GS]

again, UNCW, MASON and JMU, ALL have more caa championship appearances than VCU. keep up the good work though.